Mon May 14, 2012 9:36am EDT
May 14 - Fitch Ratings expects to assign the following ratings to the Ford Asset Securitization Trust 2012-R1 notes:
--$186,790,000 class A-1 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$214,350,000 class A-2 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$101,900,000 class A-3 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$15,890,000 class B 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$10,590,000 class C 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--$10,590,000 class D 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable.
Key Rating Drivers
Stable Credit Quality: The 2012-R1 pool is relatively consistent with prior deals. The WA FICO score is 732, in line with 2011-R3 (not rated (NR) by Fitch), but down from prior deals.
Adequate Credit Enhancement Structure: The cash flow distribution is a sequential-pay structure, consistent with prior transactions.
Initial hard credit enhancement (CE) for the class A notes totals 6.00%, consisting of 7.00% subordination and a 1.00% non-declining reserve offset by under-collateralization of 2.00%. Excess spread of 3.91% in 2012-R1 is lower versus recent transactions.
Improved Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Losses on FCCL's portfolio and 2009 - 2011 FAST securitizations declined in the past two years, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and strong used vehicle values, resulting in higher recovery rates.
Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: FCCL demonstrates good capabilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer, evidenced by historical delinquency and loss performance of its managed portfolio and securitizations. Fitch deems FCCL capable to service 2012-R1.
Positive Corporate Performance: Fitch currently rates the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Ford, the parent of FCCL, and FCCL 'BBB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook.
Strong Wholesale Vehicle Market (WVM): The Canadian wholesale vehicle market rebounded considerably during late 2009 to 2011 and remains strong in 2012. However, Fitch remains cautious of the potential impact of general economic weakness and elevated fuel prices on demand for and values of used vehicles.
Integrity of Legal Structure: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of FCCL would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
The presale report is available to all investors on Fitch's website at 'www.fitchratings.com'. For more information about Fitch's comprehensive subscription service FitchResearch, which includes all presale reports, surveillance, and credit reports on more than 20 asset classes, contact product sales at +1-212-908-0800 or at 'webmaster@fitchratings.com'.
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: Ford Auto Securitization Trust, Series 2012-R1 (Canada ABS)
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